Spotted this weekend in a window on a National Trust site.
Here are my predictions for the digital and online industry for the coming year.
Every year I score my own previous year’s predictions– see how I fared for digital predictions for 2018 and work backwards.
1. Foldable/ rollable and other-able screens
Having been teased with foldable, rollable and extendible screens for several years, I think we’ll finally start to see them next year.
I hope the phones look nicer than the Royole. And I hope the televisions looks as nice as the LG rollable, especially in that low but wide position.
And if you’re thinking that TVs might disappear soon, it looks unlikely, because 70% of Netflix binging still happens on a TV. Continue reading 2019 Digital Trends and Predictions
Time to look back on the 2018 predictions from 12 months ago…. how many of the predictions came true?
1. Tesla share price to drop significantly
Tesla stock was $312 on New Years Day 2018 and finished the year at $333, so on the face of it, the prediction was incorrect.
However, on 7 August, Elon Musk made the headlines by tweeting that “funding secured” at $420. The share price jumped 10% to $379. He was personally fined $20 million, and the company was fined the same amount.
Two months later, the stock was $250. The stock has been relatively volatile since then, climbing back to $376 and back down to $333.
Amazingly, the offending tweet is still live.
I also mentioned how “2017 was generally a good financial year, and if consumer confidence drops in 2018, people will buy fewer cars.” Ford stock started 2018 at $12 and is now under $8. General motors started at $41 and is now $33. Jaguar Land Rover (which is a private company) made a pre-tax loss of £90m for the three months to end of September, compared to a profit for the same quarter in 2017. The firm’s Solihull plant, where it makes Range Rover and Jaguar models, was closed for a two-week shutdown due to “fluctuating demand”. That followed a move to a three-day week at JLR’s Castle Bromwich plant.
Prediction rating: 5/10 – Tesla stock has been a volatile stock in 2018 but has actually finished higher Continue reading Review of 2018 predictions
Almost half of the projects on GoFundMe, the fundraising website, are to pay for medical bills. That’s $930m out of $2bn (Source: Business Insider).
That’s over 250,000 campaigns a year, raising $450m per year (Source: GoFundMe).
Another way to look at this, is that consumers now prefer to have cheaper, or no insurance, and raise funds after a claim would have arisen.
Note: this applies to the UK, not just the US.
Since the early days of Internet services such as Google and Facebook, we’ve accepted that in return for these amazing services, we have to give some of our data away. It’s a value-exchange. We get to perform a search about anything, or store and share photos for free in return for the website having some data about us and selling that to advertisers. It’s a fair value-exchange.
It’s value because our advertising tends to be personalised toward us. I’d rather see relevant adverts, for example new bicycles products from my favourite brands, rather than tampons. Continue reading Privacy: the update
We are currently between the second and third waves of robotic automation. For the first two, we underestimated how it would affect us. For the next wave, its importance can’t be underestimated again.
Wave one: physical labour
The first wave was physical automation. If you asked a car factory worker in say, the 1960s, “What is the fastest time a car can be assembled?” their answer would probably have been in the several days, maybe hours. Continue reading The three waves of robotic automation
The news about Google will stop allowing cryptocurrency companies to buy advertising demonstrates how we still haven’t cracked content censorship on the Internet.
Has Google become a content provider that can ban certain types of advertising? Until now, Google was purely a search engine selling pixels on user’s search results. They weren’t responsible for any of the signposted or copyrighted content.
(The same applies to Facebook and pretty much any other advertising funded content platform).
Note that my issue isn’t with the cryptocurrency companies. My issue is that Google and Facebook have shattered the professional journalism industry, only to then lay down their own moral advertising code of conduct when they are among the last remaining mass publishers.
On Tuesday I went to the Deloitte TMT predictions (that’s Telco, Media and Telecommunications) event at CodeNode in London.
I’ve covered several of Deloitte’s events in the past – they’re often thought-provoking and insightful, based on some decent consumer research and with a good amount of humour thrown in.
“We’ve entered the beige phase” of mobile phones – they’re all looking the same, with consumers unable to differentiate new features.
One of the stand out quotes was that smartphones are now in an area of “invisible innovation”. That is, the connectivity (e.g. 5G), camera, processors and so on, are all improving, but consumers don’t see these. Continue reading The future for smartphones, digital media and AR
Here are my predictions for the ‘digital’ industry for the coming year. I’ve been making digital predictions since 2010 and at the end of each year I review how the predictions fared – see the digital predictions for 2017 and work backwards.
1. Tesla share price to drop significantly
Each quarter, Tesla’s costs keep increasing by hundreds of millions of dollars.
Its profit margin keeps slipping further into the red.
Other companies, both traditional and new entrants, will catch up to Tesla in 2018.
Finally, 2017 was generally a good financial year, and if consumer confidence drops in 2018, people will buy fewer cars. There’s also the debt pile-up in the US car loans industry. Total auto loans in the US have increased 70% in the last 7 years to $1.17 trillion – and much of it is subprime, with some buyers opting for 7(!!) year loans (think about the value of the car at the end of 7 years).
We’ll see Tesla’s share price drop by at least 30% this coming year. Continue reading 2018 Digital Predictions
Time to look back on the 2017 predictions from 12 months ago…. how many of the predictions came true?
1. Everything On-demand
If there was one on-demand service that was in the headlines this year, it was Uber. And it wasn’t always for the right reasons. Uber and Deliveroo also led to a debate on the gig-economy and workers’ rights. Continue reading Review of 2017 predictions